A single state, Indiana, holds primaries for the Democrats and Republicans today, but the stakes couldn't be higher since a win in Indiana, would offer frontrunner Donald Trump a far easier path to the required 1,237 delegates needed to walk into the July GOP convention with enough support to be considered the presumptive Republican nominee for President, while denying his rivals the chance to stop him.
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich took time to offer commentary about Tuesday's Indiana primary, stating "For Cruz, it really is the last stand. It’s as if the Alamo had moved north. If he can’t win tomorrow he has no practical case for carrying on the campaign… If he can’t win indiana it’s pretty hard to see him with any possibility of stopping Trump. "
As of the April 26, 2016 contests, held in five states, CT, DE, MD, PA and RI, where Trump swept the slate garnering an average 60+ percent support, Cruz was mathematically eliminated from obtaining enough delegates to reach the 1,237, and Indiana was seen before last Tuesday as the last chance to deny Trump enough delegates.
POLLING - THE TIDE HAS TURNED
Since last Tuesday, handicappers are saying Trump can reach the 1,237 even without Indiana, but according to the latest polling, Trump has now has risen to a double digit lead in Indiana, which would make it far easier to attain since Indiana is considered a winner-take-all state.
Politico reports Trump has now reached a new high among Republicans in a national NBC News|SurveyMonkey poll released Tuesday, garnering 56 percent support:
The real estate mogul has 56 percent support, more than doubling his advantage over Ted Cruz, who sits at 22 percent. John Kasich rounds out the survey with 14 percent support. An additional 7 percent remain undecided.
Trump is the only Republican candidate with any mathematical path to securing the GOP nomination outright, though Cruz and Kasich are hoping to emerge as the nominee at a contested convention in July should Trump fall short of the requisite 1,237 delegates.
Gallup issued their latest results on favorability which shows the tide has definitely turned, stating that Cruz's image "has essentially nosedived over the past week or two, while Trump's image has become more positive."
Another interesting polling number comes from Rasmussen which indicates for the first time in their surveys, when a match-up between Trump and Clinton are put before respondents, now Trump has edged ahead of Clinton by two percentage points.
As I have often stated, general election match-up polls should be taken with a grain of salt until each nominee becomes the official nominee for President for their respective parties, because polling while other contenders are still peeling away support generally skews the results.
LIVE COVERAGE AND RESULTS
After polls close in Indiana CNN and NYT will be updating their Indiana Results pages.
Indiana polls close early, 6 pm in parts of Indiana and 7 in others since Indiana is split between time zones, so results should be in earlier than most other primaries contests. There will be a number of live coverage videos. A couple already running live are shown below, others will be added to give viewers a choice of what they want to watch as they become available to embed.
COMMENTARY
There are no shortage of news reports and opinions being offered as to the Indiana primary, the upcoming primaries in May and June (schedule here), predictions and commentary being seen across the web today, so a few links and some analysis of where things stand are found below.
As always, readers are encouraged to share links of interest, videos and anything election related in the comment section.
[Quick editors note to ANP readers] I will be updating this all day and throughout the evening until a winner is declared and votes are tallied. Since the open thread articles have garnered astounding amounts of comments in the past, I would ask readers to email me if I miss something that should be added to the article itself rather than in the comment section alone. (wakeupamerica.spree@gmail.com)
