There have been a lot of developments since we last covered this story although it was only been a couple weeks ago, but it needs to be updated.In the September 26 story covering the AUKUS and how that groups formation has increased the likelihood of war in the Pacific, we covered the possibilities and reasons why that war seems inevitable.This time, we will cover and group a few newer happenings to see how that has changed, or if it has changed the situation.
Last week, CBS News ran a story on Taiwan’s President and their Foreign Minister raising warnings over a “hypothetical Chinese invasion” of their island nation.In it, they mention the huge numbers of Chinese CCP air intrusions into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone.While not within their National boundaries, that zone allows for earlier identification of intrusions before they enter Taiwan’s air spaces.“Taiwan's Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said his country was preparing for China to launch an invasion.
"We are very concerned that China is going to launch a war against Taiwan at some point," he told Australia's ABC TV. "We are very concerned [that] if domestic [in China] discontent or economic slowdown is getting very serious, Taiwan could become a target."
"The defense of Taiwan is in our own hands, and we are absolutely committed to that," he added. "If China's going to launch a war against Taiwan, we will fight to the end. I'm sure that if China is going to launch an attack against Taiwan, I think they are going to suffer tremendously as well."”
That seems like fairly standard political blabber, but the back and forth claims along with the massive air intrusions have playing like something a bit more than just cold war escapades that we are witnessing. Chinese war vessels cruise the area routinely while at the same time they complain about US ships also being there. Navy Times reported that the US nuclear fast attack submarine Connecticut collided with something, an “unknown underwater object”, in the South China Sea and docked in Guam for repairs. That sort of thing is not totally uncommon as not just our own, but many nations’ submarines play a game of sticking right behind the enemy to hide in its “dead zone” noise wake. The Russians have a maneuver we call the “Crazy Ivan” (similar to their air force fighters maneuver) where they do sudden stops to force our subs to give away their location, many times just missing a collision as we would rapidly turn or change depth to miss the Russian sub. The Chinese report said they did not make contact with any of our submarines and say they wonder what we are moaning about. Although I do not trust out of hand anything a communist nation claims, it is also possible our sub was chasing a Russian sub or another object in that arena.
Just to see how weird the rhetoric has been in this mess, let’s take a few news stories from the last couple weeks in time domain order and see if we can surmise anything from it.
September 26th, CNBC said “The situation in the Taiwan Strait is “complex and grim”, Chinese President Xi Jinping wrote in a congratulatory letter on Sunday to the newly elected leader of Taiwan’s main opposition party, who has pledged to renew talks with Beijing….All the sons and daughters of the Chinese nation must work together with one heart and go forward together,” wrote Xi, who is also head of the Communist Party.
He expressed hope that both parties could cooperate on “seeking peace in the Taiwan Strait, seeking national reunification and seeking national revitalization” Again that sounds like standard form political blabber.
Not too long after that, on October 6th, Yahoo News reported that “US warns China: Taiwan threats could trigger major accidental conflict”and on the same day New York Post said we are “‘On the edge of a face-off’: China warns US amid tension over Taiwan”. Warning each other about possible problems is not unusual but it is interesting that the stories got reported on the same day.
“Chinese Communist Party is warning that the militaries currently swarming Taiwan are “teetering on the edge of a face-off.”
Tensions are ratcheting up as China’s People’s Liberation Army planes violated Taiwan’s airspace 149 times over the past week — setting a record — including 56 flights on Monday, and the US has stepped up naval operations with allies in the South China Sea, a challenge to Beijing’s territorial claims over the waterway” is the way that story puts it, and is likely close to the truth.
In response, “Taiwan President Warns China to 'Exercise Restraint' After Warplane Surge” MSN headline reads, and they state that “To meet, but not match, the PLA's growing capabilities, Taiwan has proposed a 240 billion New Taiwan dollars ($8.57 billion) special defense budget for the procurement of anti-ship and land-based cruise missiles over five years. The funds will also be used to supplement Taiwan's domestically manufactured warships and its coast guard.” Again, expected and not out of the ordinary, but that is only part of what is going on.
October 8th“China warns United States over news reports that American forces are stationed in Taiwan” said the Washington Post and that “China reiterated calls for the United States to cut off military ties with Taiwan on Friday in a cautious response to reports that U.S. Marines have been stationed on the self-ruled island for more than a year to strengthen its defenses against intensifying Chinese aggression.” And of course, “The Pentagon denied last year that Marine special operatives were training in Taiwan after the island’s military had tacitly acknowledged the change to the regular exchanges…. Pushback against Chinese military adventurism was evident in a speech Friday in Taipei by former Australian prime minister Tony Abbott, who warned “it’s quite possible that Beijing could lash out disastrously very soon.” Lies, lies and more lies. Lies never cease and it is expected that whatever they (the politicians) say (that is, all of the parties involved say), there is usually far more to it. Political blabber has a way of obfuscating the issues at hand and military intelligence is usually far different than what is publicly allowed to be known.
The next day, “Chinese President Xi Jinping vowed on Saturday to achieve "peaceful reunification" with Taiwan, and did not directly mention the use of force after a week of tensions with the Chinese-claimed island that sparked international concern.”Newsmax also said “Taiwan's China-policy making Mainland Affairs Council called on Beijing to "abandon its provocative steps of intrusion, harassment and destruction"
PJ Media put it slightly different when they claimed “China’s president, Xi Jinping, says he wants to achieve “peaceful reunification” with Taiwan just days after sending scores of warplanes close to its airspace.
The Taiwanese don’t believe it, which is why they held their own military exercises in response. The U.S. and Great Britain also held military drills late last month, which served to ratchet up tensions in the region.”
“The question for Xi — and for Biden — is should the U.S. go to war to maintain Taiwan’s independence? The actions of both nations will be dictated by the answer to that question.
If Xi doesn’t think America has the stomach to go to war to save Taiwan, the People’s Army will be in Taipei in a heartbeat.”
And on the 10th of October “The Taiwanese president stood firm against Chinese President Xi Jinping in a speech Sunday and said the island, which is separated from China by the Taiwan Strait, would not “bow to pressure” from the mainland The speech comes amidst heightened pressure from China’s communist leadership in Beijing and only a day after Xi pushed for “reunification” of Taiwan with China... “We will continue to bolster our national defense and demonstrate our determination to defend ourselves in order to ensure that nobody can force Taiwan to take the path China has laid out for us. This is because the path that China has laid out offers neither a free and democratic way of life for Taiwan, nor sovereignty for our 23 million people” as reported in the Daily Wire story. Again, not out of the ordinary expectations of political blabbery.
And on that same day, The Western Journal stated “In recent weeks, China has engaged in an unprecedented show of force against Taiwan, flying dozens of fighter planes near the island nation it views as a breakaway province.
Official government media mouthpieces have stated, “the current status of the island of Taiwan is only a short period in history that will definitely come to an end.” Beijing has made clear that it plans to ratchet up military pressure on Taipei — and, in the wake of the U.S. retreat from Afghanistan, has warned Taiwan’s pro-independence ruling party that Washington can’t be counted on to come to the rescue.
But, according to Chinese leader Xi Jinping, all China wants is the “reunification” of the motherland “by peaceful means.”
The Western Journal continued on with this bit of insight that is helpful in understanding the depth of the problem and how the political blabber just cannot describe how deep the problems really are. “Xi said that pro-independence forces were “the biggest obstacle to the reunification of the motherland and a serious hidden risk to national rejuvenation.”
“Those who forget their ancestors, betray the motherland, or split the country are doomed. They will definitely be spurned by the people and judged by history,” he said.
The most powerful political force in Taiwan at present is the Democratic Progressive Party, the more independence-minded of the two major parties. Of course, the party has U.S. support on its side — but Xi had a warning on that front, too.
“The Taiwan issue is entirely China’s internal affair, and no external interference can be condoned,” he said. The South China Morning Post said Xi avoided “naming any country directly,” but I’d wager there’d be few wrong answers if people were asked to guess what nation the Chinese leader was referring to.
“People should not underestimate Chinese people’s determination to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Xi said. “The task of complete reunification of China must be achieved, and it will definitely be achieved.”
Probably not by peaceful means, though — no matter what Xi has to say.”
Taiwan’s Independence Day is October 10th, and The Gateway Pundit article that same day had a nice video covering the situation if you want to watch it. Later that same day, Flag and Cross published an article adding that “The relative peace of the world around us hangs in a precarious balance at all time, but no time is nearly as perilous as when China turns belligerent.
Such is the case this week, as Beijing begins to speak on the possibility of a “peaceful reunification” with Taiwan, a sovereign nation that has exactly zero interest in being absorbed by big, bad China.”
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AP: Taiwan air force fly over President's residence
They then quoted from an AP News article that stated “Since last Friday, China has sent a record-breaking number of fighter jets towards international airspace close to Taiwan.
The island has strengthened its unofficial ties with countries like Japan, Australia and the U.S. in the face of these perceived threats.
“But the more we achieve, the greater the pressure we face from China,” Tsai said in her speech.
Following the address, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense showed off a range of weaponry including missile launchers and armored vehicles while fighters jets and helicopters soared overhead.”
Note the underlined text above, it is in reference to the AUKUS accord and selling US nuke sub technology to Australia (see reference to article in the beginning of this one).
The Federalist Papers headline appropriately put it when they called it in this headline, “China Makes Unprecedented Military Moves on Taiwan -- Then Xi Jinping Issues This Ridiculous Statement” They are speaking of the increase in war mongering by China while at the same time pretending they want a peaceful resolution if Taiwan does not capitulate. Again, it is standard political blabbering.
The next day’s Daily Mail said “Chinese state media has warned that '[we] will have little choice but to take Taiwan to the battlefield' after the island's president vowed to resist 'threats' from Beijing…. In another sign China is preparing for war, Beijing's military said it had carried out beach landing assault drills, on Monday posting a video of the training to the People's Liberation Army's newspaper Weibo social media page.” That video is the first one posted at the bottom while the second is of President Xi saying they will not accept an independent Taiwan. The Daily Mail ended their article with this tidbit,“America has a long-standing policy of 'strategic ambiguity' towards Taiwan, refusing to say what it would do if the island is attacked.
Joe Biden recently suggested that he would be willing to go to war in the event of an invasion, though aides insisted he had misspoke. “ And again, mindless political blabber but this time from a mindless idiot puppet.
Albawaba, a Middle East paper said “(an) anonymous 'military expert' who spoke of the 'obvious advantages' that Beijing's army has over the island's armed forces.
'Resisting reunification by force will only bring doom more quickly to Taiwan secessionists,' they added.
It is just the latest threat that Beijing's media has made to Taiwan, after warning in recent weeks that World War Three could be sparked 'at any time'.”
Enough of the political blabber, let’s get down to more specific news to better realize the severity of the situation. In regards to those US troops preparing the Taiwan troops for war mentioned above, US News reported that there are supposedly about two dozen troops there helping to train the Taiwanese while they also quoted Senator John Cornyn as saying “that the U.S. had roughly 30,000 forces on Taiwan, state news in Beijing fired back that, if true, the Chinese military would "crush them by force." Who knows? The first thing discarded in war is the truth.
1945 (19fortyfive.com) asked “Is a Chinese Military Attack on Taiwan Inevitable?” and try to guess how long until Beijing forces the issue. While some sources say by 2025, 1945 said perhaps until 2045, but I do not see it waiting that long. The argument is couched in these terms in that article; “The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy could mount a close or distant blockade of merchant shipping bound to or from the island, starving the island of natural-resource imports and the prosperity that comes with seaborne trade. The PLA Air Force and Rocket Force could bombard critical infrastructure to cripple the Taiwanese armed forces and government.
Taken alone, though, such a strategy probably would not subdue the island on Xi Jinping’s timetable. Beijing craves a short, sharp, decisive war should it decide to launch an assault. Otherwise friends of Taiwan, notably the United States and Japan, might have time to rally to reverse aggression.
Naval blockades and air offensives are the diametric opposite of short wars.”
So does that argue for an attack in the very near future? Using their logic, perhaps it does. They continue with this observation “Chinese leaders are strategically competent. In all likelihood they understand they cannot score the quick knockout punch they need by applying air and sea power alone. In the end, a sequential blow constitutes the only way to wrest contested ground from its occupants in a hurry…. Xi Jinping may have put himself on a deadline to gain control of Taiwan, whether peacefully or through conquest.”
The ASPI Strategist argues that “The US hopes to deter the use of force by China and preserve the legal limbo of Taiwan, which China regards as a renegade province. For years, US policy has been designed to deter Taiwan’s declaration of de jure independence as well as China’s use of force against the island. Today, some analysts warn that this double deterrence policy is outdated, because China’s growing military power may tempt its leaders to act…. Others believe that an outright guarantee to Taiwan or hints that the US is moving in that direction would provoke China to act. But even if China eschewed a full-scale invasion and merely tried to coerce Taiwan with a blockade or by taking one of its offshore islands, all bets would be off if an incident involving ships or aircraft led to loss of life. If the US reacted by freezing assets or invoking the Trading with the Enemy Act, the two countries’ metaphorical war could quickly become real. The lessons of 1914 are to be wary of sleepwalking, but they don’t provide a solution to managing the Taiwan problem.”
“If the Sino-American relationship were a hand of poker, Americans would recognize that they have been dealt a good hand and avoid succumbing to fear or belief in the decline of the US. But even a good hand can lose if it’s played badly.”
How easily could such an incident that might cause immediate war with China occur? I don’t know, but here are some headlines that underscore the possibility, or even likelihood, of such an incident happening.
“The Pentagon has begun the process of developing a strategy to meet the congressional requirement for a National Defense Strategy (NDS) report in 2022. The defense strategy is likely to expand upon the 2018 strategy, which identified China and Russia as peer competitors and assigned highest priority to deterring adventurism on the part of both states.
China’s increasingly aggressive stance against Taiwan — notably, its recent four-day surge of nearly 150 combat aircraft into the island’s air defense identification zone, as well as the expansion of its conventional and strategic nuclear forces — underscores the ongoing need for maintaining a credible deterrent against Beijing. Similarly, Russia’s continuing pressure on Ukraine, its ceaseless efforts to employ cyber to disrupt American political and economic activity, and its military modernization programs justify the priority that the 2022 NDS, like its immediate predecessor, is likely to assign to deterring Moscow’s aggressiveness.” The Hill
Speaking of Russia, “U.S. Military on highest alert” reads the headline in Patriot United News when they speak of “the U.S. military is on the highest level of alert in Europe after Russian troops started massing for an invasion of eastern Ukraine. The situation, Pentagon officials say, has “escalated sharply in recent days” after four Ukrainian soldiers were killed during a battle against Russian-backed forces…..“Both the Russian and Ukrainian side acknowledged that tensions had rapidly escalated.” It might be time to head to that nice bunker in New Zealand now.”
I don’t know about heading to New Zealand, it is mighty close to the possibly imminent war in the South Pacific. Things are really beginning to pop with the Satan worshipping Illuminati running the world.
“No, no, you're not thinking, you're just being logical.” - Niels Bohr, physicist (7 Oct 1885-1962)
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