A sobering analysis of how coronavirus is likely to impact the US healthcare system suggests that hospitals will be quickly overwhelmed with patients, and that all available beds will be filled by around May 8th if the virus tracks with Italy's figures and 10% of patients require an ICU.
Liz Specht, a PhD in biology and the associate director of Science and Technology for the Good Food Institute laid out her concerns in a lengthy Twitter thread on Friday, which you can see here on Twitter, or continue reading below.:
We can expect that we’ll continue to see a doubling of cases every 6 days (this is a typical doubling time across several epidemiological studies). Here I mean *actual* cases. Confirmed cases may appear to rise faster in the short term due to new test kit rollouts.
We’re looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on. Exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go.
As the healthcare system begins to saturate under this case load, it will become increasingly hard to detect, track, and contain new transmission chains. In absence of extreme interventions, this likely won’t slow significantly until hitting >>1% of susceptible population.
What does a case load of this size mean for healthcare system? We’ll examine just two factors — hospital beds and masks — among many, many other things that will be impacted.
The US has about 2.8 hospital beds per 1000 people. With a population of 330M, this is ~1M beds. At any given time, 65% of those beds are already occupied. That leaves about 330k beds available nationwide (perhaps a bit fewer this time of year with regular flu season, etc).
Let’s trust Italy’s numbers and assume that about 10% of cases are serious enough to require hospitalization. (Keep in mind that for many patients, hospitalization lasts for *weeks* — in other words, turnover will be *very* slow as beds fill with COVID19 patients).
By this estimate, by about May 8th, all open hospital beds in the US will be filled. (This says nothing, of course, about whether these beds are suitable for isolation of patients with a highly infectious virus.)
And with what we're now seeing of coronavirus infections in America actually 2 to 4 weeks behind 'reality' as we had reported on ANP back on January 27th, with an incubation period of up to 27 days, 'coronavirus Mary's' already on the loose, spreading the disease to others proving the very real possibility of the virus being passed on to others by people who don't even know they have been exposed to it, we see every reason to continue to prepare for the spread of this in America as if there'll be no coming back to what we now understand as 'normal'as Celeste Solum recently warned in this linked SQAlert.
And as Yahoo News had also reported within this story, one study is predicting that in a 'very best case scenario', more than 15 million people globally will be killed by this outbreak with a 2.4 trillion dollar hit to the global economy. As we hear in the 1st video at the bottom of this story featuring Dr. Richard Hatchett, the CEO of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, the long-term dangers of the Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak is the scariest thing he's ever dealt with in his 20 years career, comparing it to war.
So while Susan and I are absolutely thrilled that ANP readers are preparing for what is now here in America, with a 'best case scenario' of 15 million dead hinting that a 'worst case scenario' could be apocalyptic, we hope that everybody is preparing to 'shelter in place' for a period of time if possible should it come anywhere near our own communities while gearing up for the aftermath that could look an awful lot like the aftermath of war if Dr. Hatchett is correct in this first video below. In the 2nd video, Dr. Francis Boyle joins Infowars to discuss everything about this outbreak that the mainstream media continues to censor while in the 3rd and final video below we hear why the US could be in huge trouble with the virus's spread unmitigated.
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